Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Pennsylvania
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid D

Baseline

What's This?
D +1.7
D: 49.7%, R: 48%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidate

Campaign Finance Data

CANDIDATE RAISED SPENT CASH-ON-HAND
D Josh Shapiro Nominee & Incumbent $41,658,151 $14,349,218 $38,315,401
R Stacy Garrity Nominee $3,456,934 $2,394,217 $1,115,868

Totals as of August 17, 2026 — Source: Inside Elections

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
10
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
19
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): New York – Wyoming

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Jan. 24, 2025)

January 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 25, 2026
Solid Democrat
August 28, 2025
Likely Democrat
February 6, 2025
Battleground Democrat
2024
January 20, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
October 7, 2022
Lean Democrat
March 4, 2022
Tilt Democrat
December 3, 2021
Battleground Democrat
February 19, 2021
Battleground Democrat
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
August 31, 2018
Likely Democrat
April 21, 2017
Lean Democrat
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
August 1, 2014
Likely Democrat
October 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
June 28, 2013
Tilt Democrat
February 22, 2013
Toss-up
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 22, 2010
Lean Republican
September 24, 2010
Likely Republican
July 2, 2010
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+1.7D 49.7, R 48.0
2024
+1.7
2022
+4.1
2020
+3.6
2018
+6.5
2016
+4.0
2014
+6.0