Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New Hampshire
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid R

Baseline

What's This?
D +2.3
D: 50.4%, R: 48.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

CANDIDATE RAISED SPENT CASH-ON-HAND
R Kelly Ayotte Nominee & Incumbent $6,112,059 $3,941,564 $2,611,059
D Cinde Warmington Nominee $936,972 $531,885 $404,936
L Stephen Villee $2,525 $2,547 $365

Totals as of September 11, 2026 — Source: Inside Elections

Polls

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co/efficient (R)

55% R K. Ayotte
34% D C. Warmington
Source: co/efficient Sep 9 – Sep 11, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
12
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
SEP
8
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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The Issues Fueling the Most Expensive Ad War in Midterm History

October 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

The States Most Likely to Split Tickets in 2026

September 24, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 17, 2026)

September 17, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

New Hampshire Primary Results

September 9, 2026
by Inshara Ali & Jacob Rubashkin

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate & Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 11, 2025)

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): Iowa – New Mexico

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 15, 2025)

May 15, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 17, 2025)

April 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
February 6, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
September 1, 2023
Toss-up
July 28, 2023
Battleground Republican
January 20, 2023
Battleground Republican
2022
September 23, 2022
Solid Republican
March 4, 2022
Likely Republican
December 3, 2021
Battleground Republican
February 19, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
September 18, 2020
Likely Republican
February 1, 2019
Lean Republican
2018
April 21, 2017
Lean Republican
2016
October 14, 2016
Toss-up
October 5, 2015
Tilt Democrat
January 23, 2015
Likely Democrat
2014
October 29, 2014
Likely Democrat
October 25, 2013
Solid Democrat
February 22, 2013
Likely Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Toss-up
September 23, 2011
Toss-up
April 1, 2011
Solid Democrat
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
September 24, 2010
Lean Democrat
July 2, 2010
Likely Democrat

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 50.4, R 48.1
2024
+2.3
2022
+2.1
2020
+2.8
2018
+3.3
2016
+2.2
2014
+5.5