Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

Baseline

What's This?
R +2.3
D: 48.6%, R: 50.9%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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Incumbent

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Report Shorts (August 14, 2025)

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 7, 2025)

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
February 6, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
September 26, 2024
Likely Democrat
August 29, 2024
Tilt Democrat
September 1, 2023
Toss-up
January 20, 2023
Battleground Democrat
2022
December 3, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
February 19, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
June 19, 2020
Lean Democrat
February 1, 2019
Tilt Democrat
2018
April 21, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
October 14, 2016
Tilt Democrat
May 19, 2016
Toss-up
January 23, 2015
Tilt Republican
2014
January 1, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
November 2, 2012
Likely Republican
January 27, 2012
Lean Republican
December 2, 2011
Lean Republican
April 1, 2011
Lean Republican
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
July 2, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5