Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

California
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid D

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +22.4
D: 61%, R: 38.6%
November 4, 2025
California voters approved a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles that was drawn to help Democrats flip an additional 3 to 5 seats.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

CANDIDATE RAISED SPENT CASH-ON-HAND
D Gavin Newsom Incumbent -- -- --
R Steve Hilton Nominee -- -- --
D Xavier Becerra Nominee -- -- --

Totals as of July 2, 2026 — Source: Inside Elections

Polls

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UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies

52% D
31% R
May 19 – May 24, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma

June 17, 2026
by Nicholas Demba, Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Governor Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

California Primary Results: Counting Continues But Clarity in Sight

June 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): Alabama – Illinois

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
February 6, 2025
Solid Democrat
2024
January 20, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
December 3, 2021
Solid Democrat
September 15, 2021
Solid Democrat
May 7, 2021
Likely Democrat
February 19, 2021
Solid Democrat
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
April 21, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
February 22, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Democrat
October 22, 2010
Tilt Democrat
October 8, 2010
Toss-up
September 17, 2010
Tilt Republican
August 27, 2010
Toss-up
July 2, 2010
Tilt Democrat

Baselines

About
2025+22.4D 61.0, R 38.6
2024
+22.4
2022
+23.1
2020
+21.3
2018
+21.1
2016
+15.5
2014
+15.3