Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Montana
Senate I

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Final Rating

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Tilt R

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +15.5
D: 41.1%, R: 56.6%

2024 Election

Incumbent

  • R. Jon Tester | D | MT (FEC+VAR+BIO)
    DNominee

    Jon Tester

    276,305 votes (45.5%)
    VAR 4.4

    • Past Elections

    MT: 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006

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Past Elections

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Analysis

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Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge

June 30, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Senate Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2024
September 12, 2024
Tilt Republican
July 28, 2023
Toss-up
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
January 13, 2017
Tilt Democrat
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
February 1, 2011
Toss-up
January 28, 2011
Tilt Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+15.5D 41.1, R 56.6
2024
+15.5
2022
+11.7
2020
+11.9
2018
+6.6
2016
+8.7
2014
+1.3
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