Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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California
3rd District

District Map

District map

Final Rating

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Likely R

2024 Baseline

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D +6.5
D: 53.1%, R: 46.6%

2024 Election

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Analysis

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House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma

June 17, 2026
by Nicholas Demba, Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

California Primary Results: Counting Continues But Clarity in Sight

June 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

California House: Voters Enact New Map That Benefits Democrats

November 6, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2024
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
January 10, 2022
Likely Republican
December 28, 2021
Likely Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 19, 2012
Solid Democrat
September 28, 2012
Likely Democrat
December 2, 2011
Lean Democrat
August 26, 2011
Lean Democrat
2010
October 22, 2010
Lean Republican
October 1, 2010
Tilt Republican
August 23, 2010
Lean Republican
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