Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Pennsylvania
Senate III

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Toss-up

Baseline

What's This?
D +4.1
D: 50.7%, R: 46.6%

2022 Election

Incumbent

  • Headshot for Pat Toomey
    R

    Pat Toomey

    VAR 2
    Open

    • Past Elections

    PA: 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010
    PA-15: 2002, 2000, 1998

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Ratings

2022
August 25, 2022
Toss-up
January 7, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
August 19, 2016
Toss-up
January 9, 2015
Tilt Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
September 6, 2010
Tilt Republican
June 24, 2010
Toss-up

Baselines

About
2025+1.7D 49.7, R 48.0
2024
+1.7
2022
+4.1
2020
+3.6
2018
+6.5
2016
+4.0
2014
+6.0
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