Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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North Carolina
Senate III

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Tilt R

Baseline

What's This?
R +3.0
D: 48.1%, R: 51.1%

2022 Election

Incumbent

  • Headshot for Richard Burr
    R

    Richard Burr

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    NC-05: 2002, 2000, 1998, 1996, 1994

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Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
October 7, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 7, 2022
Lean Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
January 9, 2015
Lean Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Likely Republican

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5
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