Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
You are viewing a past election.

North Carolina
Senate II

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

Baseline

What's This?
R +3.0
D: 48.1%, R: 51.1%

Incumbent

Tillis

Past Elections

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Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

The 19 Swing Counties to Watch in 2026 Senate Majority Fight

July 28, 2026
by Ashleigh Jones

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

North Carolina Senate: Tar Heel Target

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (August 14, 2025)

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 1, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 11, 2019
Toss-up
January 4, 2019
Tilt Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
July 15, 2014
Tilt Democrat
May 7, 2014
Toss-up
May 21, 2013
Tilt Democrat
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5
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