Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
You are viewing a past election.

Iowa
Senate II

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

Baseline

What's This?
R +7.4
D: 45.4%, R: 52.8%

Incumbent

Ernst

Past Elections

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Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Senate Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Iowa Senate: Democrats Reach for Open Seat

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate & Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 11, 2025)

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Iowa Senate: Ernst Out, Republicans Still Favored

August 29, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House & Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 28, 2025)

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Toss-up
July 10, 2020
Toss-up
October 11, 2019
Lean Republican
January 4, 2019
Likely Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
July 15, 2014
Toss-up
January 26, 2013
Lean Democrat
January 25, 2013
Solid Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+7.1D 45.7, R 52.8
2024
+7.1
2022
+7.4
2020
+5.7
2018
+4.3
2016
+8.0
2014
+4.3
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