Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Virginia
11th District

D.C. suburbs in Fairfax County

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District map

Final Rating

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Solid D

Baseline

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2022 Election

Incumbent

  • Headshot for Gerry Connolly
    DNominee

    Gerry Connolly

    ✓ 193,190 votes (66.7%)
    VAR 0.1

    • Next Election

    Past Elections

    VA-11: 2020, 2018, 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008

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Past Elections

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Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Primary Results in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington

August 5, 2026
by Nicholas Demba & Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift To Democrats

April 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia Redistricting: Democrats Pushing for Four More Seats

April 9, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
February 8, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
January 27, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Democrat
August 23, 2010
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