Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Minnesota
Governor

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Lean D

Baseline

What's This?
D +6.4
D: 51.2%, R: 44.8%

2022 Election

Incumbent

  • Headshot for Tim Walz
    DNominee

    Tim Walz

    ✓ 1,312,349 votes (52.3%)
    VAR 1.1

    • Next Election

    Past Elections

    MN-01: 2016, 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006

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Analysis

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Governor Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Connecticut, Minnesota, South Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin

August 12, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Governor Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Report Shorts (Feb. 5, 2026)

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Governor Report Shorts (Jan. 8, 2026)

January 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): Iowa – New Mexico

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 15, 2025)

May 15, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Jan. 24, 2025)

January 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
November 3, 2022
Lean Democrat
July 15, 2022
Likely Democrat
December 3, 2021
Solid Democrat
February 19, 2021
Solid Democrat
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
October 12, 2018
Likely Democrat
April 6, 2018
Lean Democrat
October 27, 2017
Likely Democrat
April 21, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
February 22, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Tilt Democrat
July 2, 2010
Toss-up

Baselines

About
2025+6.9D 51.7, R 44.8
2024
+6.9
2022
+6.4
2020
+7.4
2018
+9.2
2016
+6.7
2014
+8.0
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