Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Florida
Governor

State Map

State map

Final Rating

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Likely R

Baseline

What's This?
R +8.8
D: 45.1%, R: 53.9%

2022 Election

Incumbent

  • Headshot for Ron DeSantis
    RNominee

    Ron DeSantis

    ✓ 4,614,210 votes (59.4%)
    VAR 5.5

    • Next Election

    Past Elections

    FL-06: 2016, 2014, 2012
    FL Governor: 2018

Candidate

Past Elections

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Analysis

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Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Florida Primary Results: Better Late Than Never

August 18, 2026
by Inshara Ali

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 5, 2026)

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): Alabama – Illinois

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)

March 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2022
March 4, 2022
Likely Republican
December 3, 2021
Battleground Republican
February 19, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
September 28, 2018
Tilt Democrat
April 21, 2017
Toss-up
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
February 22, 2013
Toss-up
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
July 2, 2010
Toss-up

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6
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