Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980
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Lean R

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D +25.7
D: 61.5%, R: 35.8%

2020 Election

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Analysis

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House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Maryland, New York, Utah and South Carolina Primary Results

June 24, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (July 24, 2025)

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2020
October 16, 2020
Lean Republican
September 18, 2020
Toss-up
September 18, 2020
Toss-up
September 18, 2020
Solid Democrat
August 7, 2020
Tilt Republican
August 7, 2020
Toss-up
July 24, 2020
Solid Democrat
May 22, 2020
Solid Democrat
May 22, 2020
Tilt Democrat
February 21, 2020
Likely Democrat
December 6, 2019
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Lean Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Republican
December 6, 2019
Lean Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
November 11, 2019
Lean Republican
October 28, 2019
Solid Democrat
April 5, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Toss-up
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Toss-up
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Lean Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Republican
February 15, 2019
Likely Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
October 26, 2018
Lean Republican
October 26, 2018
Lean Republican
September 28, 2018
Tilt Democrat
September 28, 2018
Tilt Democrat
August 17, 2018
Toss-up
August 17, 2018
Toss-up
July 6, 2018
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2018
Solid Democrat
March 21, 2018
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Tilt Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Tilt Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
September 1, 2017
Likely Republican
September 1, 2017
Tilt Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Tilt Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
November 3, 2016
Likely Republican
November 3, 2016
Lean Republican
October 21, 2016
Lean Republican
October 14, 2016
Lean Democrat
September 30, 2016
Toss-up
September 30, 2016
Tilt Republican
January 25, 2016
Lean Republican
January 8, 2016
Toss-up
January 8, 2016
Tilt Democrat
December 21, 2015
Toss-up
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Toss-up
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Toss-up
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Tilt Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
October 1, 2015
Solid Democrat
October 1, 2015
Tilt Republican
May 15, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Likely Democrat
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Lean Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
October 29, 2014
Tilt Republican
October 29, 2014
Tilt Democrat
October 29, 2014
Solid Republican
October 29, 2014
Solid Republican
October 29, 2014
Solid Republican
October 29, 2014
Tilt Democrat
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
October 24, 2014
Likely Republican
October 24, 2014
Likely Republican
October 17, 2014
Toss-up
October 17, 2014
Lean Democrat
October 3, 2014
Tilt Democrat
September 24, 2014
Tilt Democrat
September 24, 2014
Lean Republican
September 24, 2014
Lean Republican
September 24, 2014
Likely Republican
September 24, 2014
Lean Democrat
September 12, 2014
Tilt Republican
July 18, 2014
Likely Democrat
April 28, 2014
Lean Democrat
April 11, 2014
Solid Democrat
January 14, 2014
Toss-up
January 8, 2014
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Lean Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Likely Democrat
December 17, 2013
Tilt Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Likely Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Lean Republican
December 17, 2013
Likely Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Lean Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
September 27, 2013
Lean Democrat
March 8, 2013
Lean Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Tilt Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Lean Republican
March 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
November 2, 2012
Tilt Democrat
October 26, 2012
Lean Republican
October 19, 2012
Tilt Republican
October 5, 2012
Tilt Republican
October 5, 2012
Tilt Democrat
September 28, 2012
Lean Democrat
August 24, 2012
Toss-up
July 27, 2012
Tilt Democrat
June 29, 2012
Solid Republican
June 29, 2012
Solid Democrat
June 1, 2012
Likely Republican
June 1, 2012
Solid Republican
April 6, 2012
Toss-up
April 6, 2012
Tilt Democrat
March 23, 2012
Tilt Republican
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Tilt Republican
March 23, 2012
Solid Republican
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Toss-up
March 23, 2012
Lean Republican
March 23, 2012
Solid Republican
March 23, 2012
Toss-up
March 23, 2012
Likely Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Toss-up
March 23, 2012
Likely Republican
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
September 8, 2011
Toss-up
May 16, 2011
Tilt Democrat
April 29, 2011
Lean Republican
February 10, 2011
Likely Republican
2010
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 29, 2010
Tilt Republican
October 22, 2010
Toss-up
October 22, 2010
Likely Democrat
October 15, 2010
Lean Democrat
October 5, 2010
Toss-up
October 1, 2010
Tilt Democrat
September 24, 2010
Tilt Democrat
September 17, 2010
Toss-up
September 7, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat

Baselines

About
2025+18.7D 58.5, R 39.8
2024
+18.7
2022
+22.5
2020
+25.7
2018
+28.1
2016
+24.9
2014
+23.4
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