Analysis

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Wyden Looks Safe, but Democratic Rift Is Real

Liberal groups have targeted Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden for defeat in next year’s elections unless he sides with them on upcoming trade deals. But any talk about the four-term Democrat’s vulnerability is premature until there is a challenger. “Secretive Trade Deal Could Pose Problems At Home For Ron Wyden,” a rather alarming Huffington Post headline […]

Report Shorts (April 3, 2015) Florida Senate, Indiana Senate, Illinois Senate, Nevada Senate

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How Reid Reacted When a Republican Senator Was Indicted

After New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez was indicted on corruption charges Wednesday, Minority Leader Harry Reid’s reaction to his colleague’s situation wasn’t particularly surprising, but it’s not because Menendez is a fellow Democrat. “I appreciate Senator Menendez’s willingness to temporarily step down as ranking member,” the Nevada Democrat said in a statement. “He has been […]

Democrats Start With Narrow Advantage in Nevada Open Seat

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s retirement ensures that Nevada will host a top-tier Senate race in 2016. Reid’s announcement doesn’t expand the map for Republicans, since the Democrat was vulnerable if he had sought re-election to a sixth term. But the open seat is likely to be an expensive and competitive race until the end.  […]

Lopach Leads March Toward Democratic Senate Majority

Smoke billowed out of Ted Kennedy’s living room fireplace as donors gathered in his D.C. home for a fundraiser, though the legendary senator was still on the Hill for votes. But that wasn’t too much for Tom Lopach. “I don’t know anyone, my house is on fire and my husband is gone,” Vicki Kennedy, the […]

Indiana Senate Race Moves Out of Safe

GOP Sen. Dan Coats’ retirement creates a takeover opportunity in Indiana next year. But Democrats will likely need some breaks to move the race from a potential gain to a top tier contest. Coats would have started the race as a clear favorite for re-election, but now that he is retiring, his open seat could […]

Why Primaries Aren’t All Bad

Primaries can be expensive and divisive, but treating them like the plague — as party spokesmen are prone to do early every cycle — distorts electoral reality. GOP strategists looking to hold the party’s newly attained majority are reveling in the potentially crowded field of Democrats for the open seat in Maryland. Setting aside the […]

Report Shorts (March 20, 2015) Florida Senate, Maryland Senate, Michigan’s 11th, New Jersey Senate

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Mark Kirk Starts 2016 as an Underdog

Where does Illinois Republican Sen. Mark S. Kirk start in his bid for re-election? It depends on whom you ask. The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report currently rates the 2016 race as a Tossup, while the Cook Political Report says it is a “Lean Republican” contest. The folks in the statistical wing of the handicapping […]

Why Electoral Waves Are Rarer in a Presidential Year

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