Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

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Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

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2018 Election Preview: Midterms’ Mixed Messages

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 26, 2018)

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Stop Calling 2018 ‘The Year Of The Woman’

Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House increasing by double digits. But a deeper dive demonstrates more modest…

Republican Migraines and the Midterm Elections

Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities. From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and severity. And Republicans’ ability to alleviate them will…

2018 Election Preview: GOP Bump or Trend?

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Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 28, 2018)

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Prepare to Be Disappointed on Election Night

After two years of campaigning in the latest most consequential election of our lifetimes, election night could be a huge letdown. The disappointment is not about which party prevails Nov. 6, but the reality that a combination of close races and West Coast contests could prevent enough races from being called to determine majorities in Congress until days…

What 39,000 Words in 15 Profiles Didn’t Tell You About Beto O’Rourke

I’m pretty sure three new profiles of Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke have been published in the time it took me to write this lede. Yet the only thing more remarkable than the sheer volume of stories written about the congressman is that none of them put his 2012 House victory in proper context. I read more than a…

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