The next presidential election is more than three years away, and even the midterms won’t happen for another 14 months. Yet President Joe Biden could be on the brink of losing something costly: the benefit of the doubt. While I’m on the record as skeptical that Afghanistan will be the defining issue in the fall […]
In the end, it wasn’t even close. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California easily turned back the effort to remove him from office on Tuesday. With two-thirds of the vote counted already, 64 percent of voters opted to keep the first-term incumbent, compared to just 36 percent who wanted him out. The margin will probably […]
It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt. Polling The FiveThirtyEight polling average currently gives Newsom a 16-point advantage in his effort to […]
Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG. The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans. While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to show up to the polls and vote “no,” Republican candidates in favor […]
Less than 12 hours after Flight 175 crashed into the South Tower of the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, close to 150 members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, stood together on the steps of the U.S. Capitol to sing “God Bless America.” Unfortunately, that act of bipartisanship won’t ever happen again. At least […]
No, the 2022 midterm elections will not be about Afghanistan, but that doesn’t mean the situation won’t matter. While Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump contributed to the military morass, and there was close to bipartisan consensus that leaving Afghanistan was the right thing to do, there are few people defending how […]
Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG House Majority PAC has never been afraid to spend money. Still, the Democratic stalwart of Super PAC spending has, for the past decade, limited its involvement in off-cycle and pre-primary activity. Even as other outside PACs have grown more willing to broadcast creatives in the odd years […]