The new April 21, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.) House Outlook For 2006 Stuart Rothenberg While Democrats have failed to recruit the top tier candidates that they would like in places such as Arizona 1, Pennsylvania 15, Missouri 6 and Iowa 2, they have…
The press releases from national Democrats about last week’s special election to succeed disgraced former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) are so out of sync with the actual election results that I don’t even know where to begin. “Francine’s dramatic win shows that Democratic, independent and Republican voters simply want change,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.)…
A win on June 6 by Democrat Francine Busby in the special election runoff to replace Duke Cunningham (R) in California’s 50th Congressional District would be more than a symbolic victory for the Democrats. Democrats would then need a net gain of only fourteen seats, but more importantly, the field of competitive open seats would widen significantly. Former…
The result of Tuesday’s special election in California’s 50th Congressional District has Democrats claiming the mantle of victory and foreshadowing sweeping change in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November election. But the reality of the situation is much less clear. This week’s election was not a win for Democrat Francine Busby. She was the top vote-getter…
Democrats are claiming victory after Francine Busby’s 44% showing in Tuesday’s special election to replace Rep. Duke Cunningham (R). But her fight to get over 50% in the June 6 run-off in the San Diego-area congressional seat is certainly uphill. Busby’s showing was equivalent to John Kerry’s performance in the 50th District in the 2004 presidential contest, when…
For more than a year now, House Democrats have insisted that they want to widen the political playing field by recruiting strong candidates in districts they often have ignored. Now, with about 40 percent of state filing deadlines having already passed, it’s time to ask: How have the Democrats done? The short answer is that Democrats definitely have…
While some Democrats are incensed about the way former Majority Leader Tom DeLay chose to exit his race for reelection in Texas 22, both parties are guilty of being coy with election laws, primaries, and filing deadlines to gain a partisan advantage. Of all the accusations hurled at DeLay, being politically unaware is not one of them. The…
In announcing that he was ending his Congressional career and would resign his seat in the United States House of Representatives, Representative Tom DeLay (R) gave Democrats just what they wished for: His head. DeLay’s exit won’t deprive Democrats of their “culture of corruption” argument. DeLay and discredited lobbyist Jack Abramoff will still make the headlines, and Democrats…
I read “Beware of Online Polls” on the Hotline Web log only a few hours before I received a press release from Tennessee GOP Senate hopeful Ed Bryant’s campaign screaming that “Zogby Poll Confirms Bryant Strongest Candidate.” Bryant’s memo was mostly balderdash, and it’s not alone. I’m seeing other silly press releases and references to controversial polls, so…
The new April 7, 2006 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. (Click here for subscription information.) Kentucky 3: Bucking the TrendBy Nathan L. Gonzales Republican incumbents in districts carried by John Kerry are bracing themselves for the potential Democratic wave this November, but Kentucky’s 3rd District Cong. Anne Northup (R) is…