Analysis

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For Incumbents, 2008 Is Shaping Up as the Year of the Primary

With a strong majority of voters dissatisfied with the performance of President Bush and Congress, and with seven in 10 Americans telling pollsters that the country is on the wrong track, it isn’t entirely surprising that a dozen serious primaries could develop for Republican House incumbents this election cycle. Some of the primary challenges will […]

Washington 8: Outcome of Northwest Rerun Could Rest on the National Mood

Darcy Burner is back, and the former Microsoft employee is understandably optimistic about her rematch against GOP incumbent Rep. Dave Reichert. Burner, 36, came out of nowhere to draw almost 49 percent against Reichert last year in a suburban Seattle district that has been inching away from its Republican roots and toward Democrats. The challenger […]

Biden and Dodd: Still Looking for Their Opening

As the World Series approaches, two U.S. Senators, Connecticut’s Chris Dodd and Delaware’s Joseph Biden, find themselves roughly in the same place that they were at the beginning of spring training: second-tier hopefuls for the Democratic presidential nomination regarded by journalists and most Democrats as mere long shots. Both men continue to need at least […]

Nationwide Listening Tour for Clinton?

While all the presidential candidates are talking about change, next spring might be just the right time for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) to dust off an old strategy to demonstrate a fresh approach. Burdened with high personal negatives from the outset, Clinton may have an opportunity to improve her image and standing by embarking […]

For President Bush, the Reservoir of Goodwill Is Bone-Dry

About six weeks ago, an influential Capitol Hill Democrat told me he suspected that both Democrats in Congress and the White House were itching for a fight and, he said, if there was one in the fall, he certainly wanted it to be about the “kids’ health,” not about appropriations bills. It now looks as […]

Should the NRSC Spend Any Time on Lautenberg?

Twice within the past week I’ve seen or heard comments that Republicans may decide to take a shot at Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) next year, since his poll numbers suggest vulnerability. While it’s unquestionably true that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has few offensive opportunities in 2008 and is looking for states where it might […]

Where the Presidential Nomination Races Are … and Where to Look

By Stuart Rothenberg More than three months before the crucial Iowa caucuses, there are good reasons for treating national surveys with great skepticism and for placing greater weight on the candidates’ standing and strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. First, the candidates actually have been campaigning for months in those two states — meeting voters […]

Where the Presidential Nomination Races Are … and Where to Look

More than three months before the crucial Iowa caucuses, there are good reasons for treating national surveys with great skepticism and for placing greater weight on the candidates’ standing and strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. First, the candidates actually have been campaigning for months in those two states — meeting voters and airing ads. […]

New Print Edition: Illinois 8 & Connecticut 4

The September 21, 2007 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of […]

Ignored in 2006, Kissell Has Plenty of IOUs to Collect

Larry Kissell is both an example of Democrats’ opportunities and a foreshadowing of their problems. But since their opportunities are much closer, most Democratic insiders certainly can live with problems that are years away. Kissell, 56, is making his second bid to knock off incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in North Carolina’s 8th district. The […]