There is an old joke, attributed to both Winston Churchill and George Bernard Shaw. It goes something like this: Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for 5 million pounds? Woman: My goodness, Mr. Churchill … Well, I suppose … we would have to discuss terms, of course … Churchill: Would you sleep with me […]
While handicappers try to tally Democratic and Republican redistricting wins and losses in midcycle, the reality is that it could be a decade before either party can declare victory. When it comes to redistricting, how and when to define success isn’t always easy. For now, both parties are focused on maximizing their advantage or minimizing […]
While the Republican presidential race has only just begun, it’s already clear that two early one-on-one skirmishes will be crucial for the serious contenders. The first battle, Iowa, is shaping up as a fight between former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. Pawlenty has tried to position himself just to Mitt Romney’s […]
I avoid back-and-forth public arguments, believing that after I’ve made my case readers can decide for themselves who and what they believe. But I’m making an exception with this follow-up column. I recently challenged those who argue that unpopular Republican governors seriously damage the prospects of the eventual GOP presidential nominee in key states such […]
On their face, President Barack Obama's poll numbers are mediocre but not terrible. His 46 percent job approval in the June 15-19 Pew Research Center survey is far better than President George W. Bush's worst Pew Research Center job numbers, for example. In March of 2006, Bush's job approval fell to 33 percent in Pew […]
In recent years, Democrats have consistently criticized Rasmussen Reports for flooding the public space with polls and driving the narrative of races to favor Republican candidates. But six months into the 2012 cycle, public polling in Senate races has been dominated by one Democratic firm. Public Policy Polling, an automated interview polling company based in […]
National Republican strategists, still smarting from creative Democratic map-making in Illinois, finally have a reason to smile. North Carolina Republicans have a new Congressional map that is likely to cost Democrats at least three seats and quite possibly four in 2012. Republican insiders are particularly proud that the new map isn’t radically different from the […]