Analysis

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Heading to Florida after a Big Win for Newt

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North Carolina Governor: Perdue Retirement Could Help Democrats

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Senate Report Shorts (January 27, 2012)

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What Are the Chances of a Republican White Knight?

The idea probably is somewhere between nutty and delusional, but given the weird ups and downs this cycle, nutty isn’t impossible. As Republican insiders of various ideological bent, from the more moderate to the uncompromisingly conservative, watch the presidential nominating process with increasing alarm, there is more than a whiff of talk about a white […]

Will GOP Risk Goldwater II With Newt Gingrich in 2012?

In 1964, an angry Republican Party threw caution to the wind and nominated conservative Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater for president. Eight years later, Democrats rallied behind South Dakota Sen. George McGovern, an unapologetic liberal. In each case, the party’s rank and file embraced what it thought was a truth-teller who reflected the core values of […]

Toxic Congress: Dose of Electoral Uncertainty

Earlier this year, a CBS News poll showed Congress’ job approval at 12 percent, while CNN had it at 16 percent in mid-December and Gallup had it at 11 percent at the same time. Given those stunningly low numbers, it isn’t surprising that Democratic strategists figure that running against Congressional Republicans is a way for […]

Giffords Resignation Sets Up Likely Competitive Special Election

Cong. Gabrielle Giffords announced in a video message Sunday she would resign from Congress this week to focus on her ongoing recovery after an assassination attempt on her life last January. Giffords has been ever the picture of inspiration and poise, to both Republicans and Democrats, throughout this trying past year, as she’s sought to […]

Virginia Redistricting: Making the “Ins” Further “In”

Virginia’s new congressional districts don’t dramatically alter the partisanship of many districts, but the lines do solidify incumbents from both parties. Democrat Gerry Connolly’s 11th District becomes about five points more Democratic, making his already Democratic-leaning district safe for him and for his party. Republican presidential candidate John McCain failed to draw 40% in the […]

A Rough Estimate of the Current House Field

Contrary to what you see on television and cable news, there are other elections besides the presidential race this year. And for those who care about control of Congress, the picture there is starting to come into better focus. Because of substantial redistricting gains in three large states — California, Illinois and Florida — Democrats […]

Mitt McCain — The GOP’s Strange Replay of 2008

The combination of Mitt Romney’s 16-point victory in New Hampshire and his rousing election night speech launched the former Massachusetts governor toward South Carolina with the kind of old-fashioned momentum that any candidate for high office would love. Of course, Romney’s competitors are not without their assets. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) is a world-class […]