The Republican establishment is fighting back, but winning a few primaries this year won’t do much to end the insurgency from party purists. It only takes one general election loss by an establishment candidate to reignite the fire. Observers see what they want to see in the results, and they can be blinded by their […]
State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday, setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge in the race because of uncertainty […]
Who is winning the primary campaign war within the GOP between pragmatic conservatives and the anti-establishment wing of the party? It’s a simple question, but it isn’t as easy to answer as you might think. Part of the problem is deciding which candidates and races are part of the war. The anti-establishment wing of the […]
Rep. Mike Simpson looks like he’ll survive the epic establishment vs. anti-establishment struggle in the GOP primary in Idaho’s 2nd District. But if last cycle is any indication, the incumbents that lose primaries this year will be in low-profile races rather than high profile battles between outside groups. In 2012, Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt was […]
The filing deadline in Florida has passed and Democrats are banking on a potentially attractive candidate, but an even more unconventional process, to take another shot at the 13th District. Democrats recruited Colonel Ed Jany to run in the seat now being held by Republican Rep. David Jolly after the high profile special election earlier […]
After interviewing more than 1,000 candidates for the House and Senate with my colleague, Stu Rothenberg, I’ve got a pretty good idea of what makes him tick and what just plain ticks him off. Over the course of the past 25 years, Stu has garnered somewhat of a reputation of being a “hard” interview. And […]
I’ve noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common. So let me make an important distinction: While Democratic Senate candidates Alison Lundergan Grimes, 35, and Michelle Nunn, 47, have difficult races ahead of them in Kentucky and Georgia, each has a path […]
Democrats have attacked a trio of Republican Senate candidates for not being born in the states they seek to represent. While the issue could matter in a close race, there are four dozen senators who prove that birthplace isn’t necessarily a stumbling block to getting elected. Just more than half of current senators, 52 percent, […]
New York Rep. Michael Grimm’s arrest reminded me of one of my worst mistakes as a political handicapper. In May 2006, the FBI raided Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson’s offices and home on suspicion of corruption. I assumed that since agents found $90,000 cash wrapped in aluminum foil in the Democrat’s freezer, that the congressman would […]