Analysis

4240 Results

Running Against Pelosi May Not Save the GOP This Year

It is no secret that the Republican strategy to keep the House in 2018 includes running against Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi. Both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC have run television ads during special elections this cycle linking Democratic nominees to Pelosi, and GOP strategists are gleeful when […]

The Generic Is Falling! The Generic Is Falling!

I hear it all the time these days. The Democratic electoral wave is petering out. The generic ballot shows the Democrats’ advantage is cratering. President Donald Trump’s job approval ratings are up. Voters are giving the president more and more credit for the economy’s strength. Lighten up, political junkies, the election is not until November. […]

New Pennsylvania Map, New Pennsylvania House Ratings

If you’ve been wondering what political handicapping is like in a redistricting cycle (or it’s been long enough for you to forget), the Pennsylvania Supreme Court offered a good reminder. With newly-drawn districts, misplaced incumbents and new district numbers, confusion is inevitable. But the bottom line for Pennsylvania is that Democrats had a half-dozen takeover […]

2018 House Overview: On the Eve of Reality

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2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Alabama – Iowa

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2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) Kansas – New York

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2018 House Overview (Feb. 16, 2018) North Carolina – Wyoming

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The GOP Catch-22 — Donald Trump

Even if you think Republican leaders in Congress have shown no spine in responding to President Donald Trump’s more outrageous and inappropriate comments, you ought to be willing to acknowledge that GOP legislators are caught in a no-win situation. It’s always tempting to tell incumbents of an unpopular president’s party to criticize their own party […]

Ratings Change: Nolan Announcement Shifts Minnesota Open Seat to Toss-Up

Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan announced his retirement Friday, leaving Democrats with a vulnerable open seat to defend in a cycle when they need to gain 24 seats for a majority. On one hand, the open seat looks like a gift to Republicans considering Donald Trump carried the district by nearly 16 points in 2016. Nolan […]

The Stunning ‘Role of Government’ Numbers

While most people seem fascinated by shifts in presidential job approval and national ballot tests, I’ve always thought that the “role of government” question asked in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey doesn’t get the attention it deserves. The responses to that question offer interesting insights into how voters see government, which, in turn, affects […]