Analysis

4239 Results

Rating Change: Hurd Retirement Moves Texas District to Democratic Category

Will Hurd of Texas has been considered one of Republicans’ strongest incumbents. He proved that point in 2018, when he was one of just three Republicans to win re-election in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. But Hurd, who founded a cybersecurity firm before running for Congress, announced on Thursday night that he […]

How Much Do Recent Retirements Change House Battleground?

Republicans Reps. Pete Olson of Texas and Paul Mitchell of Michigan recently announced they will not seek re-election, but how much does their decision impact the fight for the House majority? Open seats are usually more vulnerable than districts where an incumbent is seeking another term, but these two retirements aren’t political earthquakes.  First of […]

When Trump Attacks, the Base Turns Out — For Both Parties

President Donald Trump’s attacks on the four Democratic congresswomen, known collectively as “the squad,” appear to be a strange way to try to win reelection. There is no doubt that Trump needs to motivate his base to win a second term, and his tweets and comments about immigrants and “socialism” are, at least in part, […]

Trump Admits He was a Liability in 2018

President Donald Trump still won’t publicly admit he was a significant factor in Republicans’ loss of the House in 2018. But a behind-the-scenes moment captured in a new book suggests he is more politically self-aware than he leads on. We know that Trump doesn’t admit mistakes or commit sins. It’s not in his personality or […]

Michigan Senate: Renovating The Blue Wall

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2019 Gubernatorial Overview: Democrats Remain Competitive in Three Red States

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Candidate Conversation – Ritchie Torres (D)

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Kentucky Senate: Seriously, Are We Doing This Again?

I understand Democrats’ frustration with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as well as their desire to send him into retirement in the 2020 elections. But once again Democrats have gotten ahead of themselves in their optimism that they can defeat the Kentucky Republican. Six years ago, Democrats and many in the national media gushed about […]

What We Can Learn from the 2004 Presidential Race

Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) Leader Richard A. Gephardt (13 […]

Fallout from Amash’s Decision in Michigan and Beyond

Republicans didn’t shed a tear after Rep. Justin Amash jumped the GOP ship. But their exuberance for being rid of the Michigan congressman might be masking his impact on the party’s effort to recapture the House majority and regain control of his 3rd District.   As more of a libertarian than a Republican, Amash has never […]